Understanding independents is key to understanding how Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump became hugely popular. Independents are also crucial for understanding how Hillary Clinton’s support might be overstated in current polls
Every four years, Labor Day means more than just the end of summer: it’s also the end of high uncertainty in a presidential election, and the time when candidates start to see their real chances. Or at least that’s what it used to mean.
The surrealism of 2016 – a former secretary of state, who ran eight years ago and is married to a former president who was almost impeached, running against a reality TV show celebrity with a mediocre business record and alleged history of sexual harassment – has finally started to ebb. Voters will have the two least popular presidential candidates in decades on their ballots, and there’s still a great deal of uncertainty about how that unpopularity will affect their decisions
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